Hampered EUR & GBP on Dovish ECB & BoE
The world-concerned US presidential election is about to be held within less than a week. Before the reveal of the Biden family‘s corruption scandal, I believed that Joe Biden was certain to win with a 17-point lead over Trump. But the situation is different now as Biden’s approval rating remains skewed to the downside with an only 7-point lead.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx official website.
Polls are only acceptable as a reference because the US
presidential election adopts the Electoral College system. In October
four years ago, the US media reported that the Democratic presidential
candidate Hillary was comfortably ahead of Trump with a 12-point lead.
Although almost all media at home and abroad predicted that Trump was
doomed to failure, the result surprised all. More than the shock
victory, Trump even held 306 votes compared to 232 votes for Hillary.
Besides, the Republicans also take full control of Congress, which
surprised the world.
The situation now is more complicated than four years ago, making it
hard to predict who will host the White House and which party will
control Congress. The rise of risk aversion in financial markets seems
inevitable under such uncertainties, as evidenced by the sharp decline
of US stocks yesterday. In this case, next weeks DXY and Japanese yen
are hopefully to be bullish.
In the face of uncertainties over the US election, there will be a few
policy-setting meetings of central banks, which are scheduled as
October 28 for Canada, October 29 for Japan and Europe, November 3 for
Australia, and November 5 for the UK. Besides Japan, all of Canada,
Europe, Australia, and the UK are likely to ease monetary policy by
taking further actions such as doing more QE and adopting negative
rates. Therefore, with the DXY poised for upsides, the Canadian dollar,
the euro, the Australian dollar, and the British pound are more likely
to be hampered under the monetary easing policy.
Moreover, while beleaguered by negatives such as the resurgence of the pandemic in Europe and the uncertainties in EU-UK trade talks, the euro and pound are just in the face of increasing risk aversion. Thus the two currencies are expected to receive more downside pressure in the following week.
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